Module V: Money management
27. Statistical significance
How many tips prove anything? A small sample is noise; you learn to calculate when it becomes signal.
Sample calculator
It shows how big the noise band of your ROI is at a given number of bets, and how many bets are needed to demonstrate a given edge.
ROI noise band at 200 betsapprox. ±14.1 percentage points
This many bets are needed to demonstrate an edge of approx. 5%approx. 1 600
InterpretationThe noise band is larger than your edge: your result does not prove anything yet
An approximation for a flat stake and a typical odds range, at 95% confidence (the formulas of Chapter 27). The exact band also depends on your odds.
Chapter outline
- 27.1How many tips prove anything? P-value, confidence interval for betting
- 27.2Small sample = noise
- 27.3Evaluating tipster records with this tool