Module IV: Variance

23. Luck vs skill

The +EV player in the red, the −EV player in the black: we show why with simulations.

Chapter outline

  1. 23.1A +EV player in the red after 1000 tips, with simulation
  2. 23.2A −EV player in the black after 500, which is why so many people think they are good at it
  3. 23.3ROI confidence interval
  4. 23.4Monte Carlo exercise with the betting simulator