Module II: Value and the market
10. Expected value (EV)
The "price" of a bet: recognising positive and negative EV, with worked examples.
EV calculator
From your own probability estimate and the odds, it computes the bet’s expected value.
Break-even probability51.3%
Gap versus break-even+3.7 percentage points
Expected value (EV)+7.3%
Expected result on this stake+73 HUF
RatingPositive EV by your estimate
The EV is only as reliable as your probability estimate. Calibration is covered in Chapter 32.
Chapter outline
- 10.1The EV formula, recognising +EV / −EV
- 10.2The concept of the long run
- 10.3Worked examples