Module I: Basics
5. Market types I, main markets
1X2, double chance, DNB
1X2 is the base market of football: home win (1), draw (X), away win (2), for regular time. Three outcomes, and in the big leagues the margin is typically smallest here, because competition and turnover are greatest here. Every other main market can be derived from it.
Double chance covers two outcomes at once: 1X (home or draw), 12 (anyone wins, just not a draw), X2 (away or draw). Its fair price is simple addition: if the home chance is 50% and the draw 25%, then 1X covers 75%, the fair odds 1.33. Safer, but in return a low-multiplier market.
DNB (draw no bet) is the middle solution: you bet on the winner, and on a draw you get your stake back. Its fair price is calculated by "distributing" the draw: the home DNB chance is p1 / (p1 + p2), in our example 50 / 75 = 66.7%, fair odds 1.50. The same market also runs under the name Asian handicap 0, which is discussed in chapter 6. In summary, for the same match (with fair chances home 50%, draw 25%, away 25%):
| Market | What you cover | Chance covered | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: home | Home win only | 50% | 2.00 |
| Double chance 1X | Home or draw | 75% | 1.33 |
| Double chance 12 | Either team wins | 75% | 1.33 |
| DNB home | Home wins, stake back on a draw | 66.7% | 1.50 |
The three markets are priced from the same triple of chances, so none of them can be a "better deal" relative to the others: you choose which risk you are willing to bear. Whichever is more comfortable pays proportionally less.
Over/Under goal markets
On the goal market you do not bet on the winner but on the total number of goals: Over or Under relative to a given line. The standard line is 2.5: since half a goal does not exist, settlement is always unambiguous — with 3 or more goals the Over wins, with 2 or fewer the Under, no stake back.
On whole lines (2.0, 3.0) there is already a third outcome: if the goal count falls exactly on the line, the bet is void, stake back (push). So Over 3.0 wins on 4+ goals, returns the stake on 3 goals, loses on 2 or fewer. The quarter lines (2.25, 2.75) are inventions of the Asian markets; chapter 6 deals with those.
The line and the odds together encode the market’s goal expectation: if the 2.5 Over is well below 2.00, the market expects a goal-rich match. Models work exactly this way in reverse: they compute a price from a goal expectation (the Poisson model, chapter 29), and BTTS and its relatives are other slices of the same goal-count distribution (chapter 7).
The big advantage of the goal market is that you don’t have to pick a winner: you bet on the question of how the match will unfold. In return the margin here is typically higher than on 1X2 — check it with the method of chapter 4.
European handicap
The handicap evens out the difference in form on paper: the favourite starts with an imaginary deficit. The European handicap stays three-outcome: you can bet a win, draw or loss on the modified result. On the "Bayern -1" market a handicap draw means Bayern wins by exactly one goal.
Settlement on the Bayern -1 example: on a 3-1 win "Bayern -1" wins (2-1 with the handicap). At 2-1 the handicap draw comes in (1-1). On a 1-1 or losing match the handicapped opponent wins. There is no stake back: all three outcomes are live, paying markets.
What is it good for? Instead of the big favourite’s 1.20 1X2 price, the -1 handicap gives a meaningful multiplier, in return for which winning is no longer enough — you have to win by a margin. The main difference between the European and Asian handicap is precisely the structure: the European is three-outcome and never gives a stake back, the Asian is two-outcome and on a whole line can return the stake — this we work through in chapter 6.
On a handicap market the most common mistake is misreading the settlement: always look at the result modified by the handicap, and know whether you are betting a European or Asian line. The two look the same on the slip but pay differently.