Module I: Basics
6. Market types II, Asian handicap
Whole, half and quarter lines
As a reminder: a handicap means that at settlement one team is given a goal head start or a goal deficit, and the bet is settled on the result modified that way. The Asian handicap (AH) is the handicap idea kneaded into a two-outcome shape: it removes the draw as an outcome, either with a stake return or with half-goal lines. Two sides remain, so it is simpler to price, and it is no accident that it is the favourite of the sharp markets, that is, of the high-turnover bookmakers and betting exchanges whose prices the rest of the market follows (chapter 15).
The line is the handicap number itself: a minus sign means that many goals are subtracted from the team you backed, a plus sign that many are added. There are three kinds of line. The whole line (0, -1, -2) can give a stake back: if the result modified by the handicap is a draw, there is a push, meaning the bet is void and you get your whole stake back. For example, on the -1 line on the home side, a 2-1 becomes 1-1 for the bet, so a push, while a 3-1 becomes 2-1, so a winner. The half line (-0.5, -1.5) always decides, a push does not exist, because half a goal cannot be scored. And the quarter line (-0.25, -0.75) splits the stake in two: half goes to the neighbouring whole line, half to the neighbouring half line, so half of a -0.25 goes to 0 and half to -0.5, and half of a -0.75 goes to -0.5 and half to -1. Hence the concept of half win and half loss, which we work through right away.
| Line | Full win | Stake back (push) | Half win / half loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (= DNB, stake back on a draw) | Win | Draw | None |
| -0.5 | Any win | None | None |
| -1 | Win by 2+ goals | Win by exactly 1 goal | None |
| -0.25 | Any win | None | Half loss on a draw |
| -0.75 | Win by 2+ goals | None | Half win on a 1-goal win |
Always break down the quarter line in your head: -0.75 means half your stake goes to -0.5 and half to -1. If you read it this way, you will never be surprised by the settlement.
Half win / half loss, worked through
Take €100 on AH -0.75 at odds of 1.95. Half the stake (€50) goes on the -0.5 line, half on the -1. If the team wins by two or more goals, both halves of the stake win: the payout is €100 × 1.95 = €195, of which €100 is your own stake, so the net profit is €95. Now look at the one-goal win. The €50 placed on -0.5 wins, a payout of €50 × 1.95 = €97.50. The €50 placed on -1 is a push and comes back unchanged. In total €97.50 + €50 = €147.50 comes back, so the net profit is €47.50. This is the half win. On a draw or loss the entire stake is lost.
The half loss is the mirror image: at AH -0.25 half your stake goes on the 0 line (push on a draw), half on the -0.5 (loses on a draw). So on a draw half the stake is returned and the other half is lost: from the €100 stake you get €50 back and €50 is your loss. On a win both halves of the stake win, on a loss both halves lose.
The mechanics seem complicated at first, but with the split rule every case can be calculated: divide the stake into two halves, settle the two neighbouring lines separately, add them up.
The AH settlement table is not to be memorised but derived: a quarter line = two neighbouring lines with the stake half-and-half. That is the whole thing.
Crossover: AH ↔ 1X2 and DNB
Some of the Asian lines correspond to the markets you have learned so far. AH 0 is exactly DNB, the bet that returns your stake on a draw. AH -0.5 is exactly a plain win (1X2 home, where 1 marks the home win and X the draw). And AH +0.5 is double chance 1X: on a plus line the team you backed is given a head start, here half a goal, so a draw is a winner too. The same risk, under a different name and often at a slightly different price. Price here means the odds: for the same outcome the higher odds are the better price, because they pay more for the same stake. You can compare them and buy the better one: if DNB pays 1.72 while the AH 0 line pays 1.78, then on a €100 stake the winning bet pays €6 more for the same risk.
This crossover is also the gateway to more serious analysis. From the odds you can work out what percentage chance the market gives an outcome, except that this also contains the bookmaker’s built-in margin, which is why all the outcomes together always add up to more than 100 per cent. Strip that margin out and you get the fair probability, the one cleaned of the margin. Sharp bookmakers give their most accurate prices on the Asian markets, from which fair 1X2 probabilities can be computed back. When the platform’s Pro odds page talks about sharp reference prices (chapter 42), it works from exactly such prices: sharp simply means those keenest, market-leading prices.
If a market has several names, it has several prices too: the AH 0 / DNB / double-chance kinship is an ideal terrain for seeking the better price (chapter 13). Watch the pairs: AH 0 matches DNB, while AH +0.5 matches double chance 1X. The outcome is the same, the cost is not: the lower the odds on the same outcome, the more expensive the same risk becomes.