7. Market types III, specials

BTTS, correct score, half-time/full-time

BTTS (both teams to score) is a simple yes/no question: do both teams score. It is important to see that this is not an independent world: it is priced from the same goal distribution as Over/Under (chapter 5), just covering a different slice. 2-0, for example, is Over 1.5 but BTTS-no; 1-1 is Under 2.5 but BTTS-yes.

On the correct score market you tip the final result (2-1, 1-1, 0-3...). Many outcomes, high multipliers, and precisely because of this a comfortable terrain for the bookmaker: among the many outcomes a thick margin can be spread out unnoticed. The overround of the whole market here is often above 20%, versus the typical 5% of 1X2.

Half-time/full-time (HT/FT) combines the two states: nine outcomes from 1/1 to 2/2. X/1, for example, means a draw at half-time and a home win at the end. The temptingly high multipliers here too come from the natural mathematics of combined, low-probability outcomes, topped up with a generous margin.

A special market is not special because it works by a different logic: it is the same distribution of chances, sliced. What makes it different: a lot more margin fits on the slicing.

Corners, cards, player props

The corner and card markets (Over/Under on the corner count, on yellow cards) look at first glance like statistical playgrounds, but are in fact strongly context-dependent: the corner count depends on playing style, the card count on the referee and the stakes of the match. A meaningless, lukewarm match and a derby with the same teams give a completely different card distribution.

Player props (goalscorer, number of shots, assists) are the fastest-growing segment and, from the bookmaker’s perspective, among the best deals: there is little reliable public data, news (injury, rotation, position change) reprices the market within hours, and the margin is wide even by comparison. Whoever plays props starts from an information disadvantage while paying a premium.

On a side market a "good feeling" is an especially cheap signal: everyone has an impression of the corner count or the goalscorer, but few have a reliable distribution. The gap between the impression and the distribution is priced by the bookmaker, to its own benefit.

Why is the margin higher on side markets?

Three reasons. First: turnover is small, so the bookmaker covers the risk of pricing errors with a wider margin. Second: competition is weak — on a side market you rarely compare five bookmakers, on the main markets you do. Third: modelling is harder, the data is scarcer and noisier, and you pay for this uncertainty too.

The numbers are tangible: if the total margin is 5% on 1X2 and 22% on correct score, then turning over the same money on the correct-score market is roughly four times more expensive. With the method of chapter 4 you can calculate the margin of any market, and the platform’s match page shows the provider’s 150+ markets with opening, average and best prices (chapter 40), where this is visible to the naked eye.

The lesson is not that side markets are forbidden, but that there the price is highest and your information disadvantage is greatest. If you play them, treat it as entertainment, and know how much you are paying for it.